Renovation Intelligence Bureau

All sources public & verifiable. Calibrated to Arcadia (85018). Updated annually.

The stay-vs.-sell math

What it actually costs to leave — and what it takes to stay.

  • $94,000 — Median dead-transaction cost for an Arcadia homeowner who sells and re-buys in 85018
  • ~12% — Total transaction cost as a share of home value when selling and re-buying in the same Phoenix submarket
  • 90% — Maximum loan-to-value available via ARV-based renovation financing on a primary residence under the conforming limit

What renovation costs in 2026

Calibrated against 201 permits in 85018. Updated annually.

  • $350/sqft — Median permitted addition cost per square foot for a non-gutted livable addition in Arcadia (85018)
  • $400/sqft — Median permitted cost per square foot for a full-gut custom build in Arcadia
  • $267,000 — Median all-in kitchen renovation cost in 85018 (permit + contractor invoice data)
  • 12% — GC coordination margin in the ExpandEase project structure, versus the 18% traditional industry standard

What a renovation is worth at resale

ARV baselines from 73 matched permit-and-resale pairs in Arcadia.

  • $550/sqft — Median ARV per square foot in 85018 for a home with a permitted livable addition
  • $690/sqft — Median ARV per square foot for a full-gut custom build in Arcadia
  • $200/sqft — Manufactured equity per square foot on a non-gutted addition in Arcadia — the spread between build cost and ARV
  • 85% — Median ARV-recovery rate on kitchen renovations in 85018 (51-resale dataset)
  • $580/sqft — Resale price floor for 85018 homes with a permitted kitchen renovation completed within 36 months of sale

What the permit data shows

Volume, scope distribution, and median project sizes from City of Phoenix Building Department records.

  • 201 — Renovation permits tracked by ExpandEase in 85018 since 2024
  • 73 — 85018 resales with a permit-pulled renovation in the ExpandEase resale dataset
  • 168 — Kitchen-scope permits tracked in 85018 (City of Phoenix, 2024–2025)
  • 132 — Primary bathroom scope permits tracked in 85018 (City of Phoenix, 2024–2025)
  • 84 — ADU and casita permits tracked in the Phoenix metro ExpandEase dataset (2024–2025)

Project outcomes: documented vs. undocumented

Change-order rates, schedule overruns, and cost overruns across 11 ExpandEase projects and 85 industry-survey projects.

  • 6.8% — Average change-order rate for renovations executed with a complete ExpandEase Golden Record
  • 19.2% — Industry median change-order rate for renovations without pre-documented scope (Block Renovation, 2025)
  • 3.2% — Average schedule overrun for ExpandEase Golden Record projects
  • 28.7% — Industry median schedule overrun for renovations without full pre-construction documentation
  • 2.5% — Average cost overrun for ExpandEase Golden Record projects, versus 22.0% industry median without documentation

What feeds the models

The public datasets ExpandEase analyzes to keep cost and ARV projections grounded in real market data.

  • 374,000 — HMDA mortgage applications in Maricopa County analyzed for financing feasibility calibration
  • 75,000+ — City of Phoenix + Maricopa County building permits in the ExpandEase permit analysis

How these numbers are made

The cost figures are built bottom-up from the City of Phoenix Building Department permit database — not estimated from national data or contractor surveys. Each permit record includes the scope description, finaled cost where filed, and contractor of record. We match those permits to ARMLS resale records to calculate actual ARV recovery.

ARV baselines are intentionally conservative relative to current Arcadia market medians. The $550/sqft addition ARV represents the floor that appraisers have supported in the past 18 months — not the ceiling. This protects homeowners from shortfall risk when the bank orders an appraisal at loan close.

Project-outcome data (change-order rates, schedule overruns, cost overruns) is drawn from ExpandEase’s 11 completed renovation projects with full Golden Record documentation. The industry comparison figures come from Block Renovation’s 2025 homeowner survey of 85 projects, which is the most recent published benchmark we are aware of.

If you find an error in any published figure, please write us at research@expandeasenow.com. We correct published numbers promptly and note the correction inline.

Run the numbers for your home.

Every stat on this page is a market median. Your specific home, address, and scope change the numbers. ExpandEase generates a calibrated feasibility estimate for your address in about 60 seconds.

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